The quality of a draft is constantly changing, as the players’ value, or their “Point Shares (PS)” number changes when they play. The result of a draft isn’t really finalized until all the players have retired. On the other end of the spectrum, players can’t earn PS until they’re playing in the NHL. Evaluate these too soon, and it’ll be a very top-heavy draft as those players generally get to the NHL the fastest. For this reason, I waited until the end of the ’21-’22 season to put together the results of the 2017 draft. Here’s what we got so far.
A reminder of the methodology for this is here: “How This Works.”
First, here’s the 2017 first round:
1 | New Jersey Devils | Nico Hischier |
2 | Philadelphia Flyers | Nolan Patrick |
3 | Dallas Stars | Miro Heiskanen |
4 | Colorado Avalanche | Cale Makar |
5 | Vancouver Canucks | Elias Pettersson |
6 | Vegas Golden Knights | Cody Glass |
7 | New York Rangers | Lias Andersson |
8 | Buffalo Sabres | Casey Mittelstadt |
9 | Detroit Red Wings | Michael Rasmussen |
10 | Florida Panthers | Owen Tippett |
11 | Los Angeles Kings | Gabriel Vilardi |
12 | Carolina Hurricanes | Martin Necas |
13 | Vegas Golden Knights | Nick Suzuki |
14 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Callan Foote |
15 | Vegas Golden Knights | Erik Brannstrom |
16 | Calgary Flames | Juuso Valimaki |
17 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Timothy Liljegren |
18 | Boston Bruins | Urho Vaakanainen |
19 | San Jose Sharks | Joshua Norris |
20 | St. Louis Blues | Robert Thomas |
21 | New York Rangers | Filip Chytil |
22 | Edmonton Oilers | Kailer Yamamoto |
23 | Arizona Coyotes | Pierre-Olivier Joseph |
24 | Winnipeg Jets | Kristian Vesalainen |
25 | Montreal Canadiens | Ryan Poehling |
26 | Dallas Stars | Jake Oettinger |
27 | Philadelphia Flyers | Morgan Frost |
28 | Ottawa Senators | Shane Bowers |
29 | Chicago Blackhawks | Henri Jokiharju |
30 | Nashville Predators | Eeli Tolvanen |
31 | St. Louis Blues | Klim Kostin |
Next, here are the top 31 players, based on their NHL “Point Shares”:
Draft Position | Draft Team | Player | Point Share |
4 | Colorado Avalanche | Cale Makar | 30.2 |
3 | Dallas Stars | Miro Heiskanen | 25.5 |
5 | Vancouver Canucks | Elias Pettersson | 25.4 |
1 | New Jersey Devils | Nico Hischier | 19.8 |
39 | Dallas Stars | Jason Robertson | 15.7 |
20 | St. Louis Blues | Robert Thomas | 14.9 |
26 | Dallas Stars | Jake Oettinger | 12.7 |
12 | Carolina Hurricanes | Martin Necas | 12.1 |
13 | Vegas Golden Knights | Nick Suzuki | 11.3 |
19 | San Jose Sharks | Joshua Norris | 10.3 |
111 | Boston Bruins | Jeremy Swayman | 9.5 |
121 | Ottawa Senators | Drake Batherson | 9 |
22 | Edmonton Oilers | Kailer Yamamoto | 8.7 |
34 | Vegas Golden Knights | Nicolas Hague | 8.6 |
29 | Chicago Blackhawks | Henri Jokiharju | 8.2 |
49 | San Jose Sharks | Mario Ferraro | 7.7 |
21 | New York Rangers | Filip Chytil | 6.7 |
50 | Anaheim Ducks | Maxime Comtois | 6.2 |
103 | Los Angeles Kings | Michael Anderson | 6.2 |
8 | Buffalo Sabres | Casey Mittelstadt | 5.5 |
2 | Philadelphia Flyers | Nolan Patrick | 4.1 |
99 | Buffalo Sabres | Jacob Bryson | 4.1 |
17 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Timothy Liljegren | 4 |
45 | Columbus Blue Jackets | Alexandre Texier | 4 |
15 | Vegas Golden Knights | Erik Brannstrom | 3.8 |
30 | Nashville Predators | Eeli Tolvanen | 3.7 |
14 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Callan Foote | 3.6 |
47 | Ottawa Senators | Alex Formenton | 3.5 |
11 | Los Angeles Kings | Gabriel Vilardi | 3.4 |
117 | Columbus Blue Jackets | Emil Bemstrom | 3.1 |
9 | Detroit Red Wings | Michael Rasmussen | 2.8 |
Next, we look at which teams had the best draft. As explained in the methodology, for the table below, a team wants fewer points. If the team drafted the best player available in their draft position, that earns a 0. If the best player is not taken, the team gets points added for the difference in PS between the player taken and the best player available. So fewer points are better.
Team | Total PS | # Picks |
Washington Capitals | 11.2 | 4 |
San Jose Sharks | 17.4 | 6 |
New York Islanders | 19.5 | 5 |
Dallas Stars | 20.1 | 7 |
Pittsburgh Penguins | 22.3 | 6 |
Ottawa Senators | 22.8 | 4 |
Columbus Blue Jackets | 23.1 | 7 |
Calgary Flames | 23.4 | 5 |
Anaheim Ducks | 25.7 | 5 |
Boston Bruins | 26.2 | 6 |
St. Louis Blues | 28.7 | 6 |
Minnesota Wild | 30.3 | 6 |
New York Rangers | 30.7 | 7 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | 32.1 | 6 |
Nashville Predators | 32.9 | 6 |
Edmonton Oilers | 35 | 7 |
Toronto Maple Leafs | 35.2 | 7 |
Florida Panthers | 35.5 | 5 |
Colorado Avalanche | 37.4 | 7 |
Los Angeles Kings | 47.7 | 7 |
Winnipeg Jets | 48.2 | 8 |
Buffalo Sabres | 48.8 | 6 |
Vancouver Canucks | 48.9 | 8 |
Carolina Hurricanes | 50 | 8 |
Montreal Canadiens | 53.5 | 7 |
Chicago Blackhawks | 55.2 | 9 |
New Jersey Devils | 57.3 | 11 |
Arizona Coyotes | 67.7 | 9 |
Vegas Golden Knights | 72.6 | 12 |
Detroit Red Wings | 79.5 | 11 |
Philadelphia Flyers | 87.2 | 9 |
A team can get a better score in the table above, simply by having fewer picks. To adjust for that, here’s the average points per draft pick.
Team | Average PS | # Picks |
Washington Capitals | 2.80 | 4 |
Dallas Stars | 2.87 | 7 |
San Jose Sharks | 2.90 | 6 |
Columbus Blue Jackets | 3.30 | 7 |
Pittsburgh Penguins | 3.72 | 6 |
New York Islanders | 3.90 | 5 |
Boston Bruins | 4.37 | 6 |
New York Rangers | 4.39 | 7 |
Calgary Flames | 4.68 | 5 |
St. Louis Blues | 4.78 | 6 |
Edmonton Oilers | 5.00 | 7 |
Toronto Maple Leafs | 5.03 | 7 |
Minnesota Wild | 5.05 | 6 |
Anaheim Ducks | 5.14 | 5 |
New Jersey Devils | 5.21 | 11 |
Colorado Avalanche | 5.34 | 7 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | 5.35 | 6 |
Nashville Predators | 5.48 | 6 |
Ottawa Senators | 5.70 | 4 |
Winnipeg Jets | 6.03 | 8 |
Vegas Golden Knights | 6.05 | 12 |
Vancouver Canucks | 6.11 | 8 |
Chicago Blackhawks | 6.13 | 9 |
Carolina Hurricanes | 6.25 | 8 |
Los Angeles Kings | 6.81 | 7 |
Florida Panthers | 7.10 | 5 |
Detroit Red Wings | 7.23 | 11 |
Arizona Coyotes | 7.52 | 9 |
Montreal Canadiens | 7.64 | 7 |
Buffalo Sabres | 8.13 | 6 |
Philadelphia Flyers | 9.69 | 9 |
The numbers are a little misleading and we need to look into details. Both tables indicate the Capitals had the best draft, when actually, they’ve had zero players make it to the NHL. That is in part due to the fact that they only had four picks and their first pick was 120th overall. The remainder of their picks were 151, 182 and 213. Not many teams will hit on those.
Dallas on the other hand, had an outstanding draft. They drafted three of the top seven players getting the second-best player, Miro Heiskenen at 3 (25.5 PS), the fifth best player, Jason Robertson at 39 (15.7 PS) and the seventh best player, Jake Oettinger at 27 (12.7 PS). The Sharks grabbed 10th best Josh Norris at 19 and he’s at 10.3 PS and 16th best Mario Ferraro at 49 and 7.7 PS.
The Don Sweeney haters will be disappointed to see the Bruins had the 7th best draft, which was on the strength of the current 11th best player, Jeremy Swayman taken at 111, and his 9.5 PS. First rounder, Urho Vaakanainen was the 43rd best player in the draft so far, with his 1.3 PS score.
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