The draft that caused all of this. The one where I wanted to see if it was as bad as people say. When I first ran the data in 2021, the result was that the Bruins didn’t have the worst draft, but were 3rd from the bottom.
And the way the data looks today, after the 2026 NHL season is:
2026 Rank
2021 Rank
Team
Avg Point Share Miss
Spots Gained
1
1
Edmonton Oilers
16.75
0
2
5
Minnesota Wild
27.20
3
3
2
Calgary Flames
28.20
-1
4
9
Nashville Predators
31.76
5
5
3
Pittsburgh Penguins
36.00
-2
6
7
Vancouver Canucks
36.26
1
7
10
Carolina Hurricanes
36.72
3
8
8
Winnipeg Jets
36.80
0
9
12
Chicago Blackhawks
38.67
3
10
6
St. Louis Blues
39.05
-4
11
4
Los Angeles Kings
39.63
-7
12
11
Buffalo Sabres
39.77
-1
13
14
Florida Panthers
40.65
1
14
15
Colorado Avalanche
42.23
1
15
16
Columbus Blue Jackets
42.36
8
16
29
Washington Capitals
43.18
13
17
13
New York Islanders
43.40
-4
18
17
New Jersey Devils
43.80
-1
19
22
Detroit Red Wings
45.93
3
20
23
Montreal Canadiens
46.24
3
21
18
Philadelphia Flyers
46.67
-3
22
27
Dallas Stars
46.92
5
23
26
Anaheim Ducks
47.01
3
24
25
Ottawa Senators
47.85
1
25
20
New York Rangers
48.18
-5
26
21
Tampa Bay Lightning
48.32
-5
27
19
Toronto Maple Leafs
48.52
-8
28
24
San Jose Sharks
48.90
-4
29
28
Boston Bruins
49.41
-1
30
30
Arizona Coyotes
51.48
0
These changes are exactly why we can’t evaluate a draft too soon. I first evaluated this one six year after it happened and we’re seeing a lot of changes, the biggest movers being the Capitals and Blue Jackets moved up a bunch while Toronto and LA dropped a bit too. While any of those teams may have still had a good draft, the changes just mean that in Washington and Columbus’ situation, their players have developed more than other teams’ players did, and the opposite for Toronto and LA. Their players got a jump on others in getting to the NHL.
The Capitals had three picks in 2015 who have reached the NHL, Adam Gaudette, Jonas Siegenthaler and Ilya Samsonov. When the analysis was done in 2021, Siegenthaler had not yet reached the NHL, Samsonov had just gotten there. 2015 was when Columbus drafted Zach Werenski 8th overall.
Toronto got Mitch Marner in 2015 and has some contribution from Travis Dermott, but not much else. Marner has been good since very early on, so he helped Toronto jump up the rankings in 2021 and a lack of other picks having any impact cost the Leafs a few spots.
When people claim the Bruins are terrible at drafting, I challenge them on that, to back up their claims. They will often ask me to do the same and I point them here. So one person on Reddit, “NomahsBettah” asked what 21 and 22 drafts would look like, with the understanding that it’s way too early to get any meaningful info from the data. So I did, and here’s what we got.
2021
Yet again proving that the NHL draft can be a crapshoot, 22 picks went past the board until a team chose the current best player available. With the 23rd pick in the draft, the Dallas Stars selected Wyatt Johnson. And yes, those 22 picks include one by the Bruins, where they took Fabian Lysell. The next two picks were the next two best players, Power and Beniers, but then a bit of a gap where JJ Moser was picked 60th by Arizona. Some more chalk picks with McTavish, Luke Hughes, Dylan Guenther (9th) and Kent Johnson before the next best player on the board, Matt Knies went to Toronto at 57.
Keeping in mind that a lot will change in the coming years as players develop, here’s the current rankings as of March 31, 2025:
Team
Total Missed Point Value
Missed Value Per Player
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
-4
-0.57
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
-5.6
-1.87
3
San Jose Sharks
-19.5
-2.17
4
Montreal Canadiens
-22.7
-2.52
5
Vancouver Canucks
-15.3
-2.55
6
New York Islanders
-16.2
-2.70
7
Pittsburgh Penguins
-13.5
-2.70
8
Philadelphia Flyers
-16.3
-2.72
9
Chicago Blackhawks
-22.3
-2.79
10
Washington Capitals
-17.4
-2.90
11
Seattle Kraken
-20.5
-2.93
12
Dallas Stars
-29.8
-2.98
13
Anaheim Ducks
-26.2
-3.28
14
Boston Bruins
-23.5
-3.36
15
Carolina Hurricanes
-46.3
-3.56
16
Arizona Coyotes
-34.5
-3.83
17
Edmonton Oilers
-23.1
-3.85
18
New Jersey Devils
-27.1
-3.87
19
New York Rangers
-31
-3.88
20
Florida Panthers
-25.2
-4.20
21
Calgary Flames
-34.5
-4.31
22
St. Louis Blues
-17.5
-4.38
23
Colorado Avalanche
-18.6
-4.65
24
Columbus Blue Jackets
-44.1
-4.90
25
Vegas Golden Knights
-30.3
-5.05
26
Buffalo Sabres
-57.3
-5.21
27
Nashville Predators
-34.7
-5.78
28
Detroit Red Wings
-49.3
-6.16
29
Minnesota Wild
-49.2
-7.03
30
Ottawa Senators
-49.1
-8.18
31
Winnipeg Jets
-34.8
-8.70
32
Los Angeles Kings
-41.4
-10.35
2022
The questions coming into this draft were whether Montreal would take the sure thing, Shane Wright or take someone else. It was a bit of a risk as they went we with Juraj Slavkofsky. So how’s that looking today? Well Montreal did not get the best player available, but he was not Shane Wright. As of this writing, Wright was the 5th best available player. First was Logan Cooley, taken 3rd by Arizona. Montreal did get the second best in Slavkovsky but in a steal for this draft, they also got the third best player, taken 62nd overall in Lane Hutson. Anaheim’s pick at 10, Mintyukov is the next best player, then Wright. The #2 pick, Simon Nemec by New Jersey is 7th best. Colorado only had two picks in the draft, at 193 and dead last, 225. As more players get to the NHL, the Colorado ranking will change. Here’s a look at these way too early rankings.
How long does it take to get to the NHL? It’s going to be different for the first overall pick to the last pick in the last round. And it is probably a gradual progression along the way.
We also often say that after the first half of the first round, it’s all a crapshoot anyway, it’s only those top 15-16 picks that are locks, right? Is that true?
I decided to look at the data from 2000 to 2024 and see how long it took the player in each first round draft slot to get to the NHL. And by “get to the NHL”, I mean in the season where he played the majority of his games. Getting 5 games in a year isn’t “getting there”. If we look at each draft position, how long does it take? Let’s start with the top 10 picks.
First Overall
This one should really be a lock. The team who chooses first can take any player they want. In some of my other research, I found that the first overall pick turns out to be the best player in the draft only half the time. The other half, some player not taking first overall ends up being better than the guy taken first. This is also the only pick where every player drafted could be evaluated. From the second pick through 10th, it’s not fair to call the 2024 player a “miss”. But the first pick in 2024 is Macklin Celebrini and I’m confident that he’s “made it” in the NHL. The numbers for the first rounders are:
0 Years
21 players
1 Year
3 players
2 Years
0 players
3 Years
1 player
Bust
0 players
The first overall pick makes it to the NHL pretty quickly. 24 out of 25 did it by the year after they were drafted. The only one who took three years was goalie Rick DiPietro, the 2000 first overall pick. And none have been a bust, where a bust is defined as someone who never played the majority of their games in the NHL.
Second Overall
Getting chosen second overall in the NHL draft is still a pretty solid pick and there are no busts here either. The majority play in the NHL in their draft year. A quick look at the numbers.
0 Years
13 players
1 Year
6 players
2 Years
4 players
3 Years
1 player
Bust
0 players
The only player here to take more than two years was again a goalie, Kari Lehtonen. Thirteen players make it in their draft year, 10 others within two years and no busts.
Third Overall
The third overall pick is still looking solid and again, only one player took more than two years to get to the NHL. This time, not a goalie, it’s Dylan Strome. The one player that took two years was 2005 pick Jack Johnson.
0 Years
11 players
1 Year
11 players
2 Years
1 player
3 Years
1 player
Bust
0 players
Fourth Overall
Now it starts to get interesting. We see the first bust and we start to see the majority of players take a little longer, but still doing well. In case you’re wondering, the one player rated as the “bust” is Griffin Reinhart whose longest stint was 29 games with Edmonton in 2015-16.
0 Years
5 players
1 Year
10 players
2 Years
6 players
3 Years
0 players
4 Years
1 player
5 Years
0 players
6 Years
1 player
Bust
1 player
That six year player is Thomas Hickey, drafted in 2007 by the LA Kings.
Fifth Overall
We will gradually see the “bust” numbers increase and the number of players drift downward.
0 Years
4 players
1 Year
5 players
2 Years
5 players
3 Years
5 players
4 Years
1 player
5 Years
2 players
6+ Years
0 players
Bust
1 player
The “bust” is Olli Juolevi, chosen in 2016 by Vancouver.
Sixth Overall
More downward drift.
0 Years
5 players
1 Year
10 players
2 Years
3 players
3 Years
2 players
4 Years
0 players
5 Years
1 player
6+ Years
1 player
Bust
1 player
The bust was Nikita Filatov, selected by Columbus and the 6+ year player was again a goalie, Al Montoya who waited seven years to make it to the NHL.
Seventh Overall
Now we only get one player who made it to the NHL in his draft year, Jeff Skinner, and two bust players, Lars Jonsson (2000) and Lias Anderson (2017).
0 Years
1 player
1 Year
9 players
2 Years
8 players
3 Years
2 players
4 Years
0 players
5 Years
1 player
6+ Years
0 players
Bust
2 players
Eighth Overall
Four players got to the NHL in their draft year, Pierre Marc Bouchard in 2002, Mikkel Bodker in 2008, Alex Burmistrov in 2010 and Sean Couturier in 2011. The busts happened in 2004, 2007 and 2009.
0 Years
4 players
1 Year
6 players
2 Years
4 players
3 Years
3 players
4 Years
1 player
5 Years
2 player
6+ Years
0 players
Bust
3 players
Ninth Overall
The one player to make it to the NHL in his draft year was Josh Bailey, in 2008. The bust years were 2000, 2002 and 2018. Still waiting on the three most recent picks, 2022’s Matt Savoie, 2023’s Nate Danielson and 2024’s Zayne Parekh. They’re not factored in to the data below.
0 Years
1 player
1 Year
6 players
2 Years
8 players
3 Years
4 players
4 Years
0 players
5 Years
0 players
6+ Years
0 players
Bust
3 players
Tenth Overall
The last one that is included for now (the remaining 22 picks will come later), is the 10th overall pick. 2022’s Pavel Mintyukov is included in this data, so the only two not included are 2023’s Dalibor Dvorsky and 2024’s Anton Silayev. That leaves 23 picks, 8 of which are a bust. That’s 35% of the 10th overall picks in the draft who have not made it to the NHL. If 2021’s Tyler Boucher does eventually make it to the NHL, that will drop to 30%, but even that is probably a much higher bust rate than many would have thought. The one player taken 10th overall to make it to the NHL in his draft year is Valeri Nichushkin.
The team rankings can change with every NHL game played. The data is based on the “Point Shares” that a player earns in games. If you want more info on the methodology, it’s all here: https://www.draft-analysis.com/
The last time I ran the data was three years ago. A lot has changed and we also now have enough data to analyze a couple more drafts. It takes time for drafted players to get to the NHL, so I previously stopped at 2017. This time, I ran up through 2020. The more recent drafts are a lot more volatile and will likely change a lot more as the players earn Point Shares through their career.
A lot of what is done here is to look at drafts objectively, with data, largely because I’m a Bruins fan and Bruins fans love to say “Don Sweeney is the worst GM for drafting.” I wanted to see if that is correct, using data. I’ll give you the short version here, since 2015 and through the 2020 draft, the Bruins have been the 13th best in the NHL. So like I tell people, definitely not the worst, not the best, but in the top half. There’s also a lot of fluctuations in how they’ve drafted. I did rank each team each year and this is what we got: 2015: 27th best 2016: 6th best 2017: 2nd best 2018: 11th best 2019: 28th best 2020: First overall
And before you guffaw at that 2020, two caveats: 1. It’s about value for their draft position. It’s not about getting just the best player, it’s getting the best player at each of their draft positions, or what I call “avoiding missed value”. 2. It’s the most recent draft that I’ve looked at and the numbers are extremely close through all the teams. The numbers for 2020 will change a lot over the next 10+ years.
The 2015 Draft
Bruins fans love to call out 2015 for the Bruins as it was a huge missed opportunity. The Bruins could have gotten much better players. But for what this looks at, avoiding missed value, the Bruins didn’t do the worst, they even had three teams who did worse. Here’s the 2015 draft rankings. The second column is the total “missed value” and the last column is the average. The Bruins have the most aggregate missed value but they also had more draft picks than other teams.
Rank
Team
Total Missed Value
Missed Value Per Pick
1
Edmonton Oilers
-83
-13.83
2
Calgary Flames
-92.8
-18.56
3
Minnesota Wild
-154.7
-22.10
4
Pittsburgh Penguins
-98.1
-24.53
5
Nashville Predators
-186.7
-26.67
6
Vancouver Canucks
-200.7
-28.67
7
Winnipeg Jets
-235.3
-29.41
8
Carolina Hurricanes
-265.9
-29.54
9
St. Louis Blues
-190.4
-31.73
10
Los Angeles Kings
-192.3
-32.05
11
Chicago Blackhawks
-224.8
-32.11
12
New York Islanders
-225.1
-32.16
13
Washington Capitals
-133.3
-33.33
14
Buffalo Sabres
-202.10
-33.68
15
Florida Panthers
-270.4
-33.80
16
Colorado Avalanche
-243
-34.71
17
Columbus Blue Jackets
-313.4
-34.82
18
New Jersey Devils
-183.1
-36.62
19
Detroit Red Wings
-221.3
-36.88
20
Montreal Canadiens
-191.1
-38.22
21
Dallas Stars
-192.5
-38.50
22
Philadelphia Flyers
-347.7
-38.63
23
Ottawa Senators
-309.5
-38.69
24
Anaheim Ducks
-271.6
-38.80
25
San Jose Sharks
-357.8
-39.76
26
Toronto Maple Leafs
-360
-40.00
27
Boston Bruins
-401.4
-40.14
28
Arizona Coyotes
-387.1
-43.01
29
Tampa Bay Lightning
-357.2
-44.65
30
New York Rangers
-314.3
-44.90
Let’s keep going.
2016 Draft
The Bruins were sixth best in 2016, helped by Charlie McAvoy. He is currently the 3rd best player in that draft and the Bruins got him 14th. Minnesota is in the lead currently more by default and bigger misses by other teams. The Wild had four picks and got Kunin and Duhaime to the NHL. What’s also an illustration of this methodology is Toronto had the first overall pick and landed a generational player in Matthews. But that doesn’t get them to the top of this list. They, like many other teams, missed on players like Alex Debrincat, Adam Fox, Brandon Hagel and Jesper Bratt.
1
Minnesota Wild
-85.6
-21.40
2
New York Rangers
-134.5
-22.42
3
Arizona Coyotes
-113.5
-22.70
4
New York Islanders
-142.5
-23.75
5
Calgary Flames
-233.4
-25.93
6
Boston Bruins
-166.5
-27.75
7
Montreal Canadiens
-166.5
-27.75
8
San Jose Sharks
-141.2
-28.24
9
Nashville Predators
-229.1
-28.64
10
Tampa Bay Lightning
-310.5
-31.05
11
Detroit Red Wings
-220.1
-31.44
12
Washington Capitals
-223.2
-31.89
13
Chicago Blackhawks
-288.4
-32.04
14
Philadelphia Flyers
-325.2
-32.52
15
Los Angeles Kings
-132.1
-33.03
16
Buffalo Sabres
-332.8
-33.28
17
St. Louis Blues
-233.9
-33.41
18
Toronto Maple Leafs
-369.7
-33.61
19
Florida Panthers
-237.4
-33.91
20
New Jersey Devils
-311.7
-34.63
21
Vancouver Canucks
-211.5
-35.25
22
Pittsburgh Penguins
-216.8
-36.13
23
Columbus Blue Jackets
-181.5
-36.30
24
Anaheim Ducks
-218.1
-36.35
25
Dallas Stars
-228.6
-38.10
26
Colorado Avalanche
-231.9
-38.65
27
Ottawa Senators
-200.6
-40.12
28
Winnipeg Jets
-241.4
-40.23
29
Carolina Hurricanes
-372.3
-41.37
30
Edmonton Oilers
-381.6
-42.40
2017 Draft
The Bruins had a big jump in the rankings for this draft on the back of Jeremy Swayman, huge value in the 4th round. Dallas easily won this draft as they got the 2nd, 5th and 6th best players using the 3rd, 39th and 26th picks to do that for Miro Heiskenen, Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger. That’s how you draft value and that’s what this analysis is all about. The current best player from this draft was taken 4th, by Colorado, Cale Makar. The Devils might be happy with their pick, Hischier, but I’m willing to bet that Philadelphia would love a do-over after their pick of Nolan Patrick at 2.
1
Dallas Stars
-69.6
-9.94
2
Boston Bruins
-77.9
-11.13
3
Columbus Blue Jackets
-84
-12.00
4
San Jose Sharks
-82.9
-13.82
5
St. Louis Blues
-83.5
-13.92
6
New York Islanders
-70.7
-14.14
7
Calgary Flames
-70.8
-14.16
8
Pittsburgh Penguins
-85.7
-14.28
9
Edmonton Oilers
-103.5
-14.79
10
New York Rangers
-104.1
-14.87
11
New Jersey Devils
-172.1
-15.65
12
Tampa Bay Lightning
-95.5
-15.92
13
Toronto Maple Leafs
-111.5
-15.93
14
Minnesota Wild
-97.6
-16.27
15
Colorado Avalanche
-114.4
-16.34
16
Winnipeg Jets
-133
-16.63
17
Nashville Predators
-101.9
-16.98
18
Ottawa Senators
-71.6
-17.90
19
Vancouver Canucks
-148.6
-18.58
20
Carolina Hurricanes
-151
-18.88
21
Los Angeles Kings
-135
-19.29
22
Vegas Golden Knights
-236.2
-19.68
23
Florida Panthers
-99.2
-19.84
24
Chicago Blackhawks
-179.7
-19.97
25
Anaheim Ducks
-102
-20.40
26
Washington Capitals
-41.7
-20.40
27
Buffalo Sabres
-128.6
-21.43
28
Detroit Red Wings
-249.6
-22.69
29
Montreal Canadiens
-161
-23.00
30
Arizona Coyotes
-199.4
-24.93
31
Philadelphia Flyers
-236.3
-26.26
2018 Draft
This is the first time looking at this draft and those coming after it. The players have now had six years to reach the NHL and start earning their point shares. We are already starting to get into some really narrow margins in the rankings, a lot can still change in the future. And with the Bruins currently only having Jakub Lauko playing in the NHL, they’ll likely drop in future years. Edmonton leads this draft on the back of having taken Evan Bouchard with the 10th overall pick. Buffalo took Rasmus Dahlin first overall, but the best player taken was Quinn Hughes by Vancouver at 7.
1
Edmonton Oilers
-28.4
-5.68
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
-65.1
-7.23
3
Winnipeg Jets
-48
-8.00
4
Tampa Bay Lightning
-57.4
-8.20
5
New Jersey Devils
-49.6
-8.27
6
Vancouver Canucks
-49.7
-8.28
7
Vegas Golden Knights
-70.9
-8.86
8
St. Louis Blues
-53.9
-8.98
9
Calgary Flames
-46.1
-9.22
10
Nashville Predators
-39.1
-9.78
11
Boston Bruins
-49.1
-9.82
12
Columbus Blue Jackets
-59.5
-9.92
13
Minnesota Wild
-79.5
-9.94
14
Florida Panthers
-60.7
-10.12
15
Philadelphia Flyers
-82.6
-10.33
16
Carolina Hurricanes
-62.2
-10.37
17
Washington Capitals
-74.3
-10.61
18
Ottawa Senators
-85.2
-10.65
19
Anaheim Ducks
-75.9
-10.84
20
Buffalo Sabres
-65.5
-10.92
21
Pittsburgh Penguins
-46.1
-11.53
22
San Jose Sharks
-105.8
-11.76
23
Colorado Avalanche
-95.5
-11.94
24
Los Angeles Kings
-86.3
-12.33
25
Dallas Stars
-105.1
-13.14
26
New York Rangers
-133.9
-13.39
27
New York Islanders
-109.7
-13.71
28
Chicago Blackhawks
-110
-13.75
29
Arizona Coyotes
-126.7
-14.08
30
Montreal Canadiens
-160.7
-14.61
31
Detroit Red Wings
-167.6
-16.76
2019 Draft
Another new addition. Bruins only have Johnny Beecher from this one. Only about half the time does the best player go first overall. This is one of them where Jack Hughes is the best player in the draft. The next best players are Moritz Seider, taken 6th by Detroit, Matt Boldy at 12 by Minnesota, Cole Caufield 15th by Montreal and Bowen Byram, 4th by Colorado.
Rank
Team
Missed Value
Missed Value Per Pick
1
Columbus Blue Jackets
-13
-4.33
2
Dallas Stars
-18.6
-4.65
3
Washington Capitals
-21.3
-5.33
4
Montreal Canadiens
-59.9
-5.99
5
Vancouver Canucks
-55.4
-6.16
6
St. Louis Blues
-31.7
-6.34
7
Nashville Predators
-52.1
-6.51
8
Toronto Maple Leafs
-39.4
-6.57
9
New York Islanders
-41
-6.83
10
Minnesota Wild
-54.9
-6.86
11
Anaheim Ducks
-48.4
-6.91
12
Calgary Flames
-35
-7.00
13
Carolina Hurricanes
-84
-7.00
14
Vegas Golden Knights
-56
-7.00
15
Chicago Blackhawks
-42.6
-7.10
16
Philadelphia Flyers
-50.9
-7.27
17
Florida Panthers
-65.5
-7.28
18
New Jersey Devils
-73.1
-7.31
19
Colorado Avalanche
-59.4
-7.43
20
Detroit Red Wings
-82.4
-7.49
21
San Jose Sharks
-37.6
-7.52
22
Arizona Coyotes
-68.4
-7.60
23
New York Rangers
-61.2
-7.65
24
Ottawa Senators
-47
-7.83
25
Buffalo Sabres
-47.1
-7.85
26
Pittsburgh Penguins
-40.3
-8.06
27
Winnipeg Jets
-40.3
-8.06
28
Boston Bruins
-40.4
-8.08
29
Tampa Bay Lightning
-57.1
-8.16
30
Los Angeles Kings
-79.8
-8.87
31
Edmonton Oilers
-56.2
-9.37
2020 Draft
The last one to analyze now as it’s only been four years and some players can take up to six years to get to the NHL. Plus there just hasn’t been much time for players to accumulate point shares, there won’t be a lot of variation. The best players taken here were Stutzle by Ottawa at 3, Lucas Raymond at 4 by Detroit, Seth Jarvis at 13 by Carolina, Lafreniere at 1 by the Rangers and Jake Sanderson by Ottawa at 5. Why isn’t Ottawa higher on the list when they have two of the five best players? Because they took those players around where they should have gone. And they’re only 2 points out of the top spot. There will be a lot of movement of these standings in the coming years.
Rank
Team
Missed Value
Missed Value per Pick
1
Boston Bruins
-17
-4.25
2
New York Islanders
-22.5
-4.50
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
-43.3
-4.81
4
New York Rangers
-43.5
-4.83
5
Pittsburgh Penguins
-26.3
-5.26
6
St. Louis Blues
-37
-5.29
7
Philadelphia Flyers
-26.8
-5.36
8
Buffalo Sabres
-27.1
-5.42
9
Florida Panthers
-50
-5.56
10
Arizona Coyotes
-28
-5.60
11
Vancouver Canucks
-28
-5.60
12
Montreal Canadiens
-45.1
-5.64
13
Chicago Blackhawks
-46.1
-5.76
14
Detroit Red Wings
-69.4
-5.78
15
Calgary Flames
-46.6
-5.83
16
Carolina Hurricanes
-46.7
-5.84
17
Toronto Maple Leafs
-70.2
-5.85
18
Vegas Golden Knights
-35.2
-5.87
19
Colorado Avalanche
-29.8
-5.96
20
Columbus Blue Jackets
-30.2
-6.04
21
Ottawa Senators
-63.6
-6.36
22
Edmonton Oilers
-38.2
-6.37
23
New Jersey Devils
-51.5
-6.44
24
Los Angeles Kings
-59.1
-6.57
25
Washington Capitals
-33.1
-6.62
26
Dallas Stars
-35
-7.00
27
Nashville Predators
-50.1
-7.16
28
San Jose Sharks
-65.1
-7.23
29
Winnipeg Jets
-32.9
-8.23
30
Anaheim Ducks
-66.6
-8.33
31
Minnesota Wild
-49.1
-9.82
The Don Sweeney Era
At some point, I’ll tie these to GMs and if I can find the names, to team Scouting Directors. But I think we’re also getting closer to answering questions about whether Don Sweeney is “the worst” at drafting, and over this period, if we average out the rankings, the Bruins are 12.83 or rounded to 13th best in the NHL from 2015 through 2020.
But again, a lot could change over the coming years.
Not all draft positions have equal value. I think we can all agree that the first overall pick doesn’t have the same value as the last pick. There would be gradually decreasing value as the draft goes on. Sometimes, teams get criticized for not drafting as well as another team, but this context is often lost. If one team is drafting in the top 10 and another is in the bottom 10, how do you compare those? Which team is drafting better? One way to do it is to look at value for the draft position.
To figure out whether teams are getting value, first we need to know what is the value of each draft position, so I did that. Again, I used the “Point Shares” metric provided by Hockey-Reference. I don’t know that it’s the best metric, but it’s certainly better than something like games played as for one, goalies and skaters won’t have the same value with games played. For another, a 500 game journeyman is not the same as a 500 game star.
I pulled all the Point Shares numbers for every NHL first round pick* from 1979 through 2018. Anything more recent than 2018 is still too soon to have much value. Then I just put all the players together by draft position and figured out the average. So here’s the average Point Shares, by draft position:
Now that we’ve set a baseline of what a particular draft position is worth, we can start to look at how each team (or General Manager) has done with their drafts. More to come!
* First Round Pick: I extended this to the first 31 picks in the draft for consistency. Some years had fewer than 31 picks, but as of 2018, the first round had 31 picks.
Some Bruins fans love to use their 20/20 hindsight and call out all the players the Bruins should have drafted. I’ve also wondered, what if the Bruins had just followed the NHL Central Scouting rankings for each draft, who would they have ended up with? Let’s take a look. Here’s the way it works, each year before the draft, the NHL puts out their own rankings of all the available players. I took that and I crossed names off as they were actually drafted and then when it was the Bruins’ turn to pick, looked at who is the best player available, according to the NHL scouts. Here’s how that went.
2015
We all know 2015 went really badly from the perspective that it was a very deep draft, there were a lot of good players available when the Bruins had three choices. Jake DeBrusk has turned out to be approximately what he was projected to be, around the 19th best player in that draft. Zach Senyshyn has been a huge miss, and then there’s Jakob Zboril. Due to slower development and injuries, the jury is still out. But those are the three guys they took. We always hear about Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Boeser and so many other players, but based on the 2015 NHL Central Scouting rankings, who would the Bruins have gotten? Yes, Matt Barzal and Kyle Connor, but the third one might surprise some people, Jakob Zboril. The best goalies available were Ilya Samsonov and Mackenzie Blackwood.
Let’s take it a little further and look at the second round where the Bruins took Brandon Carlo at 37 and Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson at 45. The highest ranked players at 37 were Jansen Harkins, Michael Spacek, Blackwood or old friend Daniel Vladar. For the second pick, the same players were still available, but if the Bruins had taken Harkins at 37, then the next man up would be Filip Chlapik. Going as far as the third round, when they took Jeremy Lauzon, the best player in the rankings was Jeremy Roy.
2016
In 2016, the Bruins took Charlie McAvoy at 14, but according to the NHL Central Scouting, the highest rated available was Jakob Chychrun. Chrychrun is a pretty good player, but he’s not as good as Charlie McAvoy. That pick is a win for the Bruins. The Bruins also had a second first round pick at 29 where they took Trent Frederic. The highest ranked player was 21st, Alex Debrincat. He eventually went to Chicago, dropping all the way to 39. In the second round, the Bruins took a guy who is now an NHL defenseman, but was traded to the Rangers in the Rick Nash deal, Ryan Lindgren. He was drafted 49th. The highest ranked players at the time were Kale Clague and Carl Grundstrom. I feel pretty good about the Bruins scouting and drafting on that pick.
2017
This is the last year to look at as not enough players have had time to develop yet from 2018 on. But this year, the Bruins took Urho Vaakanainen at 18. The highest ranked players available according to the NHL Central Scouting were either Eeli Tolvanen or Klim Kostin. Meh. I’m not too excited about any of those players and I wouldn’t get too excited about “missing” on any of those. Looking into the second round, the Bruins took Jack Studnicka at 53 and the highest ranked players available for that pick were Rickard Hugg and Alexei Lipanov. To which I can just say “Who?” as neither of them have NHL experience and I don’t think either will ever get any.
There you have it, the answer to “What if the Bruins fired all their scouts and just used the NHL’s own rankings?” The thing to keep in mind though is for every Debrincat, all the other teams missed on him too. Each team has their own hits and misses including the Flyers, Stars and Capitals 2016 first round picks who have played a combined 15 NHL games.
All of the draft analysis so far has been about whether teams took the best player available at their draft position and if they did not, how much did they miss by. That is the main point of a draft, to get the best players available to you. However, some people like to criticize teams for only having a certain number of players reach the NHL. I see criticisms that include “Barely any of your draft picks make it to the NHL!” However, let’s look at this another way.
So one night, your favorite team plays the game and later that night, someone asks “How’d they do?” and you answer “They scored 3 goals.” Is that good? Virtually anyone would ask “But what was the score?” or “How many did the other team score?” because how many goals a team scores is relative to the other team’s goals scored in determining who wins. If you score 1 goal and shut out the other team, you win. If you score 6 goals but give up 7, you lose. So just having information about one team doesn’t tell you much. You need to compare it to the other team. Same with draft results. Knowing how one team has fared means nothing unless you know how that compares to other teams. If you want to know which team is best at drafting by the Best Player Available method, I have that for you here: Which Team is Best at Drafting: Answered
But if you care more about whether a team’s draft picks reach the NHL, I have that for you here too. It’s a ridiculously low bar to use “to reach the NHL”, but it’s a standard many people use in evaluating a General Manager or a team’s drafting ability, so here we go.
How it Works
I took the draft results (data taken from hockey-reference.com) from every NHL draft, 2000 to 2017 and added up how many players for each team have reached the NHL. There have been 4212 players drafted in that timeframe and 1963 of those have reached the NHL for a league average of 46.6%.
From 2000 to 2004, the NHL went 9 rounds for their draft, selecting around 290 players per year. The league averages those years were:
2000
40.27%
2001
43.94%
2002
35.75%
2003
44.52%
2004
44.33%
Yep 2002, a year led off with Rick Nash and Kari Lehtonen was a tough one. Once the league dropped two rounds, the percentage improved.
2005
48.26%
2006
42.72%
2007
45.97%
2008
49.54%
2009
55.02%
2010
50.24%
2011
59.81%
2012
51.42%
2013
50.71%
2014
46.67%
2015
48.57%
2016
45.50%
2017
42.40%
Some people ask why I stop at 2017 and you can see the answer here. Players just haven’t developed yet to give an accurate and fair picture. The percentage drops off. Maybe no more players from the 2017 draft will ever play in the NHL, but the numbers indicate otherwise. If we look at 2018, it’d likely be even lower, so it’s not worth including yet. (Update: Ok, I did check 2018. 217 players were selected and as of July 2022, 67 players have reached the NHL for a 30.8%. In 2018, there were also 217 selections and 56 have reached the NHL for a 25.8%. In short, it’s too early to judge teams on these drafts.)
Some years for individual teams were particularly interesting like in 2008, the Canadiens had 5 picks and zero have played in the NHL. Vancouver had 7 picks in 2007 and none have played even a single NHL game. The Penguins and Capitals matched that in 2017. Pittsburgh missing on six picks and the Capitals missed on all four. The opposite has also happened in a number of years. All five of the Devils picks in 2015 have played an NHL game. In 2011, the deepest draft statistically, four teams graduated all players to the NHL. All seven of Anaheim’s picks, all five of Calgary’s, all five of Pittsburgh’s and all six of Tampa’s. The highest graduation total was the 2008 Islanders, 9 out of their 13 picks played at least one NHL game.
The Best and Worst
Who are the best teams using this metric? This is the total percentage for all drafts from 2000 to 2017 for the teams. Atlanta and Winnipeg have been combined.
Boston
60.63%
Columbus
52.94%
Los Angeles
52.35%
Anaheim
52.34%
Toronto
51.45%
Ottawa
50.37%
Philadelphia
50.36%
New Jersey
50.00%
Pittsburgh
48.09%
San Jose
47.69%
St. Louis
46.90%
Carolina
46.88%
Buffalo
45.89%
Nashville
45.70%
Calgary
45.59%
Edmonton
45.45%
Colorado
45.39%
Florida
45.21%
Minnesota
45.11%
Montreal
45.04%
NY Islanders
45.00%
NY Rangers
44.44%
Dallas
43.88%
Washington
43.80%
Tampa Bay
42.48%
Atlanta/Winnipeg
41.89%
Phoenix/Arizona
41.73%
Chicago
41.57%
Vancouver
40.65%
Detroit
36.69%
So there you have it, the Boston Bruins and their General Managers from Mike O’Connell to Jeff Gorton to Peter Chiarelli to even the current Don Sweeney, lead the NHL with drafting players who play at least one game in the NHL. Again, a ridiculously low bar, but it’s one that people choose for some reason, when they want to evaluate a team’s drafting ability and the front office.
If you have any questions about the data, let me know on twitter at @plaverty24 and I’ll do my best to answer.
The quality of a draft is constantly changing, as the players’ value, or their “Point Shares (PS)” number changes when they play. The result of a draft isn’t really finalized until all the players have retired. On the other end of the spectrum, players can’t earn PS until they’re playing in the NHL. Evaluate these too soon, and it’ll be a very top-heavy draft as those players generally get to the NHL the fastest. For this reason, I waited until the end of the ’21-’22 season to put together the results of the 2017 draft. Here’s what we got so far.
A reminder of the methodology for this is here: “How This Works.”
First, here’s the 2017 first round:
1
New Jersey Devils
Nico Hischier
2
Philadelphia Flyers
Nolan Patrick
3
Dallas Stars
Miro Heiskanen
4
Colorado Avalanche
Cale Makar
5
Vancouver Canucks
Elias Pettersson
6
Vegas Golden Knights
Cody Glass
7
New York Rangers
Lias Andersson
8
Buffalo Sabres
Casey Mittelstadt
9
Detroit Red Wings
Michael Rasmussen
10
Florida Panthers
Owen Tippett
11
Los Angeles Kings
Gabriel Vilardi
12
Carolina Hurricanes
Martin Necas
13
Vegas Golden Knights
Nick Suzuki
14
Tampa Bay Lightning
Callan Foote
15
Vegas Golden Knights
Erik Brannstrom
16
Calgary Flames
Juuso Valimaki
17
Toronto Maple Leafs
Timothy Liljegren
18
Boston Bruins
Urho Vaakanainen
19
San Jose Sharks
Joshua Norris
20
St. Louis Blues
Robert Thomas
21
New York Rangers
Filip Chytil
22
Edmonton Oilers
Kailer Yamamoto
23
Arizona Coyotes
Pierre-Olivier Joseph
24
Winnipeg Jets
Kristian Vesalainen
25
Montreal Canadiens
Ryan Poehling
26
Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger
27
Philadelphia Flyers
Morgan Frost
28
Ottawa Senators
Shane Bowers
29
Chicago Blackhawks
Henri Jokiharju
30
Nashville Predators
Eeli Tolvanen
31
St. Louis Blues
Klim Kostin
Next, here are the top 31 players, based on their NHL “Point Shares”:
Draft Position
Draft Team
Player
Point Share
4
Colorado Avalanche
Cale Makar
30.2
3
Dallas Stars
Miro Heiskanen
25.5
5
Vancouver Canucks
Elias Pettersson
25.4
1
New Jersey Devils
Nico Hischier
19.8
39
Dallas Stars
Jason Robertson
15.7
20
St. Louis Blues
Robert Thomas
14.9
26
Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger
12.7
12
Carolina Hurricanes
Martin Necas
12.1
13
Vegas Golden Knights
Nick Suzuki
11.3
19
San Jose Sharks
Joshua Norris
10.3
111
Boston Bruins
Jeremy Swayman
9.5
121
Ottawa Senators
Drake Batherson
9
22
Edmonton Oilers
Kailer Yamamoto
8.7
34
Vegas Golden Knights
Nicolas Hague
8.6
29
Chicago Blackhawks
Henri Jokiharju
8.2
49
San Jose Sharks
Mario Ferraro
7.7
21
New York Rangers
Filip Chytil
6.7
50
Anaheim Ducks
Maxime Comtois
6.2
103
Los Angeles Kings
Michael Anderson
6.2
8
Buffalo Sabres
Casey Mittelstadt
5.5
2
Philadelphia Flyers
Nolan Patrick
4.1
99
Buffalo Sabres
Jacob Bryson
4.1
17
Toronto Maple Leafs
Timothy Liljegren
4
45
Columbus Blue Jackets
Alexandre Texier
4
15
Vegas Golden Knights
Erik Brannstrom
3.8
30
Nashville Predators
Eeli Tolvanen
3.7
14
Tampa Bay Lightning
Callan Foote
3.6
47
Ottawa Senators
Alex Formenton
3.5
11
Los Angeles Kings
Gabriel Vilardi
3.4
117
Columbus Blue Jackets
Emil Bemstrom
3.1
9
Detroit Red Wings
Michael Rasmussen
2.8
Next, we look at which teams had the best draft. As explained in the methodology, for the table below, a team wants fewer points. If the team drafted the best player available in their draft position, that earns a 0. If the best player is not taken, the team gets points added for the difference in PS between the player taken and the best player available. So fewer points are better.
Team
Total PS
# Picks
Washington Capitals
11.2
4
San Jose Sharks
17.4
6
New York Islanders
19.5
5
Dallas Stars
20.1
7
Pittsburgh Penguins
22.3
6
Ottawa Senators
22.8
4
Columbus Blue Jackets
23.1
7
Calgary Flames
23.4
5
Anaheim Ducks
25.7
5
Boston Bruins
26.2
6
St. Louis Blues
28.7
6
Minnesota Wild
30.3
6
New York Rangers
30.7
7
Tampa Bay Lightning
32.1
6
Nashville Predators
32.9
6
Edmonton Oilers
35
7
Toronto Maple Leafs
35.2
7
Florida Panthers
35.5
5
Colorado Avalanche
37.4
7
Los Angeles Kings
47.7
7
Winnipeg Jets
48.2
8
Buffalo Sabres
48.8
6
Vancouver Canucks
48.9
8
Carolina Hurricanes
50
8
Montreal Canadiens
53.5
7
Chicago Blackhawks
55.2
9
New Jersey Devils
57.3
11
Arizona Coyotes
67.7
9
Vegas Golden Knights
72.6
12
Detroit Red Wings
79.5
11
Philadelphia Flyers
87.2
9
A team can get a better score in the table above, simply by having fewer picks. To adjust for that, here’s the average points per draft pick.
Team
Average PS
# Picks
Washington Capitals
2.80
4
Dallas Stars
2.87
7
San Jose Sharks
2.90
6
Columbus Blue Jackets
3.30
7
Pittsburgh Penguins
3.72
6
New York Islanders
3.90
5
Boston Bruins
4.37
6
New York Rangers
4.39
7
Calgary Flames
4.68
5
St. Louis Blues
4.78
6
Edmonton Oilers
5.00
7
Toronto Maple Leafs
5.03
7
Minnesota Wild
5.05
6
Anaheim Ducks
5.14
5
New Jersey Devils
5.21
11
Colorado Avalanche
5.34
7
Tampa Bay Lightning
5.35
6
Nashville Predators
5.48
6
Ottawa Senators
5.70
4
Winnipeg Jets
6.03
8
Vegas Golden Knights
6.05
12
Vancouver Canucks
6.11
8
Chicago Blackhawks
6.13
9
Carolina Hurricanes
6.25
8
Los Angeles Kings
6.81
7
Florida Panthers
7.10
5
Detroit Red Wings
7.23
11
Arizona Coyotes
7.52
9
Montreal Canadiens
7.64
7
Buffalo Sabres
8.13
6
Philadelphia Flyers
9.69
9
The numbers are a little misleading and we need to look into details. Both tables indicate the Capitals had the best draft, when actually, they’ve had zero players make it to the NHL. That is in part due to the fact that they only had four picks and their first pick was 120th overall. The remainder of their picks were 151, 182 and 213. Not many teams will hit on those.
Dallas on the other hand, had an outstanding draft. They drafted three of the top seven players getting the second-best player, Miro Heiskenen at 3 (25.5 PS), the fifth best player, Jason Robertson at 39 (15.7 PS) and the seventh best player, Jake Oettinger at 27 (12.7 PS). The Sharks grabbed 10th best Josh Norris at 19 and he’s at 10.3 PS and 16th best Mario Ferraro at 49 and 7.7 PS.
The Don Sweeney haters will be disappointed to see the Bruins had the 7th best draft, which was on the strength of the current 11th best player, Jeremy Swayman taken at 111, and his 9.5 PS. First rounder, Urho Vaakanainen was the 43rd best player in the draft so far, with his 1.3 PS score.
How does a team get a top line center? I last looked at this in the summer of 2022, so let’s do a little update in January of 2025. Previously I used the depth charts at CapFriendly, but this time I’ll use average TOI for each team’s centers.
Team
Player
Obtained
Draft Position
Draft Year
Main Trade Piece
Anaheim
Trevor Zegras
Draft
9
2019
Boston
Pavel Zacha
Trade
6
2015
Eric Haula
Buffalo
Tage Thompson
Trade
26
2016
Ryan O’Reilly
Calgary
Mikael Backlund
Draft
24
2007
Carolina
Seth Jarvis
Draft
13
2020
Chicago
Connor Bedard
Draft
1
2023
Colorado
Nathan MacKinnon
Draft
1
2013
Columbus
Sean Monahan
UFA Signing
6
2013
Dallas
Wyatt Johnson
Draft
23
2021
Detroit
Dylan Larkin
Draft
15
2014
Edmonton
Connor McDavid
Draft
1
2015
Florida
Alexander Barkov
Draft
2
2013
LA
Anze Kopitar
Draft
11
2005
Minnesota
Joel Eriksson Ek
Trade
20
2015
Montreal
Nick Suzuki
Trade
13
2017
Max Pacioretty
Nashville
Filip Forsberg
Trade
11
2012
Martin Erat, Michael Latta
New Jersey
Jack Hughes
Draft
1
2019
NYI
Mat Barzal
Draft
16
2015
NYR
Vincent Trochek
UFA Signing
64
2011
Ottawa
Joshua Norris
Trade
19
2017
Erik Karlsson
Philadelphia
Travis Konechny
Draft
24
2015
Pittsburgh
Sidney Crosby
Draft
1
2005
San Jose
Mikael Granlund
Draft
9
2010
Seattle
Chandler Stephenson
Trade
77
2012
5th Round Pick
St. Louis
Robert Thomas
Draft
20
2017
Tampa Bay
Jake Guentzel
Trade
77
2013
3rd Round Pick
Toronto
Auston Matthews
Draft
1
2016
Utah
Clayton Keller
Draft
7
2016
Vancouver
Elias Pettersson
Draft
5
2017
Las Vegas
Jack Eichel
Trade
2
2015
Tuch, Krebs, picks
Washington
Dylan Strome
UFA Signing
3
2015
Winnipeg
Mark Scheifele
Draft
7
2011
We can sort the data by how they were obtained and then which draft pick each one was, to get a better view of how the players are obtained. 20 of the 32 were obtained in the draft and 15 of those 20 were in the first 15 picks. Barzal just misses as the 16th pick, but Bruins fans will certainly scream that he should have been a top 15 pick. We also see three first line centers were signed as unrestricted free agents and the remaining nine were obtained via trade. As I noted in 2022, getting the most minutes doesn’t necessarily make a guy a “first line center”, but that’s the context of what we’re looking for here. How do teams get a true first line center for their team. I’ll let the reader look through the list and decide for themselves who is a “true 1C” and look how teams get them.
Team
Player
Obtained
Draft Position
Draft Year
Main Trade Piece
Chicago
Connor Bedard
Draft
1
2023
Colorado
Nathan MacKinnon
Draft
1
2013
Edmonton
Connor McDavid
Draft
1
2015
New Jersey
Jack Hughes
Draft
1
2019
Pittsburgh
Sidney Crosby
Draft
1
2005
Toronto
Auston Matthews
Draft
1
2016
Florida
Alexander Barkov
Draft
2
2013
Vancouver
Elias Pettersson
Draft
5
2017
Utah
Clayton Keller
Draft
7
2016
Winnipeg
Mark Scheifele
Draft
7
2011
Package of assets
Anaheim
Trevor Zegras
Draft
9
2019
San Jose
Mikael Granlund
Draft
9
2010
LA
Anze Kopitar
Draft
11
2005
Carolina
Seth Jarvis
Draft
13
2020
Detroit
Dylan Larkin
Draft
15
2014
NYI
Mat Barzal
Draft
16
2015
St. Louis
Robert Thomas
Draft
20
2017
Dallas
Wyatt Johnson
Draft
23
2021
Calgary
Mikael Backlund
Draft
24
2007
Philadelphia
Travis Konechny
Draft
24
2015
Las Vegas
Jack Eichel
Trade
2
2015
Tuch, Krebs, picks
Boston
Pavel Zacha
Trade
6
2015
Eric Haula
Nashville
Filip Forsberg
Trade
11
2012
Martin Erat, Michael Latta
Montreal
Nick Suzuki
Trade
13
2017
Max Pacioretty
Ottawa
Joshua Norris
Trade
19
2017
Erik Karlsson
Minnesota
Joel Eriksson Ek
Trade
20
2015
Buffalo
Tage Thompson
Trade
26
2016
Ryan O’Reilly
Seattle
Chandler Stephenson
Trade
77
2012
5th Round Pick
Tampa Bay
Jake Guentzel
Trade
77
2013
3rd Round Pick
Washington
Dylan Strome
UFA Signing
3
2015
Columbus
Sean Monahan
UFA Signing
6
2013
NYR
Vincent Trochek
UFA Signing
64
2011
(The following data was first published here in July 2022 and it out of date now. It’s being kept just for historical purposes and comparison to current data.)
Let’s look at each team’s guy, using the depth charts from CapFriendly.com. Feel free to disagree on who the 1C is on each team, but that’s the data I’m using.
Team
Player
Obtained
Draft Position
Draft Year
Main Trade Piece
Anaheim
Trevor Zegras
Draft
9
2019
Arizona
Barrett Hayton
Draft
5
2018
Boston
Patrice Bergeron
Draft
45
2003
Buffalo
Tage Thompson
Trade
26
2016
Ryan O’Reilly
Calgary
Elias Lindholm
Trade
5
2013
Dougie Hamilton
Carolina
Sebastian Aho
Draft
35
2015
Chicago
Jonathan Toews
Draft
3
2006
Colorado
Nathan MacKinnon
Draft
1
2013
Columbus
Jack Roslovic
Draft
25
2015
Dallas
Roope Hintz
Draft
49
2015
Detroit
Dylan Larkin
Draft
15
2014
Edmonton
Connor McDavid
Draft
1
2015
Florida
Alexander Barkov
Draft
2
2013
LA
Anze Kopitar
Draft
11
2005
Minnesota
Ryan Hartman
Trade
30
2013
Draft picks
Montreal
Nick Suzuki
Trade
13
2017
Max Pacioretty
Nashville
Mikael Granlund
Trade
9
2010
Kevin Fiala
New Jersey
Jack Hughes
Draft
1
2019
NYI
Brock Nelson
Draft
20
2010
NYR
Mika Zibanejad
Trade
6
2011
Derick Brassard
Ottawa
Joshua Norris
Trade
19
2017
Erik Karlsson
Philadelphia
Sean Couturier
Draft
8
2011
Pittsburgh
Sidney Crosby
Draft
1
2005
San Jose
Tomas Hertl
Draft
17
2012
Seattle
Matty Beniers
Draft
2
2021
St. Louis
Ryan O’Reilly
Trade
33
2009
Package of assets
Tampa Bay
Steven Stamkos
Draft
1
2008
Toronto
Auston Matthews
Draft
1
2016
Vancouver
JT Miller
Trade
15
2011
Draft picks
Las Vegas
Jack Eichel
Trade
2
2015
Tuch, Krebs, picks
Washington
Nicklas Backstrom
Draft
4
2006
Winnipeg
Mark Scheifele
Draft
7
2011
First, consider that these are just the first line center on each of the teams, then think about whether certain guys would be the 1C or even 2C on your own favorite team. Some might not.
So how do you get your first line center? It looks like for the most part, you draft him. 18 out of the 32 players are Top-10 picks and 22 out of 32 are from the top half of the draft. If you’re drafting in the bottom half, your choices become pretty slim.
10 of the players were obtained by trades, and most of those were for a big name going the other way (Karlsson, O’Reilly, Hamilton, Pacioretty).
Here’s the same table, sorted by the round the players were drafted. This view emphasizes the fact that teams generally get their top center from the first ten picks in the draft.
Team
Player
Obtained
Draft Position
Draft Year
Main Trade Piece
Colorado
Nathan MacKinnon
Draft
1
2013
Edmonton
Connor McDavid
Draft
1
2015
New Jersey
Jack Hughes
Draft
1
2019
Pittsburgh
Sidney Crosby
Draft
1
2005
Tampa Bay
Steven Stamkos
Draft
1
2008
Toronto
Auston Matthews
Draft
1
2016
Florida
Alexander Barkov
Draft
2
2013
Seattle
Matty Beniers
Draft
2
2021
Las Vegas
Jack Eichel
Trade
2
2015
Tuch, Krebs, picks
Chicago
Jonathan Toews
Draft
3
2006
Washington
Nicklas Backstrom
Draft
4
2006
Arizona
Barrett Hayton
Draft
5
2018
Calgary
Elias Lindholm
Trade
5
2013
Dougie Hamilton
NYR
Mika Zibanejad
Trade
6
2011
Derrik Brassard
Winnipeg
Mark Scheifele
Draft
7
2011
Philadelphia
Sean Couturier
Draft
8
2011
Anaheim
Trevor Zegras
Draft
9
2019
Nashville
Mikael Granlund
Trade
9
2010
Kevin Fiala
LA
Anze Kopitar
Draft
11
2005
Montreal
Nick Suzuki
Trade
13
2017
Max Pacioretty
Detroit
Dylan Larkin
Draft
15
2014
Vancouver
JT Miller
Trade
15
2011
Draft picks
San Jose
Tomas Hertl
Draft
17
2012
Ottawa
Joshua Norris
Trade
19
2017
Erik Karlsson
NYI
Brock Nelson
Draft
20
2010
Columbus
Jack Roslovic
Draft
25
2015
Buffalo
Tage Thompson
Trade
26
2016
Ryan O’Reilly
Minnesota
Ryan Hartman
Trade
30
2013
Draft picks
St. Louis
Ryan O’Reilly
Trade
33
2009
Package of assets
Carolina
Sebastian Aho
Draft
35
2015
Boston
Patrice Bergeron
Draft
45
2003
Dallas
Roope Hintz
Draft
49
2015
In the end, it looks like the best way to get a top center, is to miss the playoffs, endure a bad season and hope a guy is available at your spot and he develops.
The opinions of some Bruins fans are often what lead me to dig into data. For example, most Bruins fans hate the 2015 draft and claim Bruins GM Don Sweeney is terrible at drafting, so I looked into data to see if that’s true. But another claim is that the team doesn’t win enough. They’re not consistent enough and they need to do more. Yes, I’d love for the Bruins to win the Stanley Cup more often, but how do the Bruins results compare to other teams? Do other teams win more? Are they consistently better than the Bruins? That leads to a question for fans of any organization. Would you prefer that your team is consistently good or would you prefer a team is that cycles between great and terrible?
In my head, I believed that the Bruins “hold on” after highly successful years more than other organizations. In 2011, the Bruins played Vancouver for the Cup and Vancouver has not been consistently good since then. In 2013, the Bruins played Chicago for the Cup and Chicago has not been consistently good since then. Even after 2019, the Blues have not continued on as a juggernaut of a team. But let’s look at how all teams do after they go to the Stanley Cup Final, both the Cup winner and the team they beat, since 2000, and look at what they did after. “How they do” is defined by regular season point totals and what overall place they come in. Also note, 2004-05 was the lockout year, so no standings and no Cup awarded.
I’ll pluck out a few to make graphs with and release the data from all the teams. Let’s look at the first team in my timeframe, the 2000 (and 2003) Stanley Cup champions, the New Jersey Devils.
They won the Cup twice and then kept pushing for another six years before eventually the bottom fell out and the rebuild became necessary, starting in 2011. Over the last 11 seasons, the Devils have struggled to do much.
How about a team who won the Cup, had to take some steps back, rebuild and is back at the top. The Colorado Avalanche:
The Avs won the Cup in 2001, then drifted downward in the standings, finishing 4th, 6th, 10th, 13th and eventually the bottom fell out and the rebuild happened to get them the Cup in 2022. I see some Bruins fans lamenting that the Bruins front office can’t be more like Colorado’s and in looking at the 2010 to 2020 years, that’s a lot of suffering for a fanbase, and suffering that I’m not sure those Bruins fans would tolerate.
Here’s a look at Tampa’s path as well. They won the Cup in 2004 and then went the rebuild route to get back to where they are today. Here’s a look at their annual finishes:
As Bruins fans know, the last time they won the Cup was 2011. We’ve seen that in at least two examples here, it’s typical for a team to win the Cup, be decent for years and five to seven years, then the bottom falls out. As it’s now been eleven years since the Bruins won the Cup, there’s been enough of a sample for them to follow that pattern. Here’s their graph:
The worst the Bruins did was to drop to 17 which was in 2015 and that was the cap jail the team got into via Chiarelli and the attempted Cup run with Iginla. Since then, it’s looked pretty good. But also notice what’s missing. A bottoming out that requires a rebuild.
One other team has been similar. The Pittsburgh Penguins also have not needed a rebuild, but that’s probably what happens when you get Crosby and Malkin in back to back drafts:
The Penguins have a similar line to the Bruins, their worst finish was also in 2015 when they finished 15th. There’s no big drop-off and no rebuild that was necessary. The Bruins and the Penguins are generally the outlier among teams.
Here is the average, high and low finish for each Cup winner since 2000. The longer ago the Cup win was, the more data there is, as the data starts the year after the team won the Cup between 2000 and 2021:
Cup Winner
Year
Average
High
Low
New Jersey
2000
15.76
3
29
Colorado
2001
14.50
1
30
Detroit
2002
13.21
1
31
New Jersey
2003
17.44
5
29
Tampa Bay
2004
14.06
1
30
Carolina
2006
17.25
3
26
Anaheim
2007
13.80
2
30
Detroit
2008
16.64
3
28
Pittsburgh
2009
6.69
2
15
Chicago
2010
13.50
1
27
Boston
2011
7.91
1
17
Los Angeles
2012
17.40
7
30
Chicago
2013
15.33
3
27
Los Angeles
2014
19.63
8
30
Chicago
2015
17.71
3
27
Pittsburgh
2016
7.50
2
12
Pittsburgh
2017
8.60
5
12
Washington
2018
7.25
4
13
St. Louis
2019
8.67
2
15
Tampa Bay
2020
7.50
7
8
Tampa Bay
2021
7.00
7
7
IN the case of New Jersey, we see a team who won, hung on for a few years and is still struggling with their rebuild. With Colorado, we see a team that won, did the rebuild and is back at the top. With the Bruins and the Penguins, we see two teams who haven’t bottomed out after winning the Cup and by looking at the chart, we can see that most teams do bottom out.
Cup Finalists
The data above only includes teams that have won the Cup since 2000. But what if we look at the same data for the teams who lost in the Cup Final. Some of these will also include Cup winning teams, but the main thing here is the same patterns emerge. Teams win, teams take some time to drop off, then the bottom falls out and the rebuild needs to begin.
Starting with the Cup finalist in 2000 and 2020, the Dallas Stars, here’s the path they’ve taken. Definitely some ups and downs in there.
Here is the Cup finalist in 2002 and a team that Bruins fans are all too aware that has finally made their resurgence, The Carolina Hurricanes. But it definitely was not quick, taking about 15 years to get to where they are now.
We’ve already seen how the Bruins have fared since 2011, so how has their opponent, the Vancouver Canucks done since then. Have they had as much continued success as the Bruins have?
It’s safe to say that no, Vancouver has not been nearly as competitive as the Bruins have since they met for the Cup in 2011.
Like with the Cup winners, here’s a table with each Cup finalist and their average finish after they went to the final, plus the highest and the lowest they’ve finished. The same patterns emerge, the same teams stand out.
Cup Finalist
Year
Average
High
Low
Dallas
2000
13.67
2
24
New Jersey
2001
16.40
4
29
Carolina
2002
17.53
3
30
Anaheim
2003
13.61
2
30
Calgary
2004
15.76
2
27
Edmonton
2006
21.88
8
30
Ottawa
2007
20.47
12
31
Pittsburgh
2008
6.79
2
15
Detroit
2009
18.46
6
31
Philadelphia
2010
15.67
4
29
Vancouver
2011
19.09
1
29
New Jersey
2012
24.10
14
29
Boston
2013
8.33
1
17
NY Rangers
2014
15.50
1
26
Tampa Bay
2015
7.57
1
18
San Jose
2016
17.50
6
29
Nashville
2017
11.40
1
19
Vegas
2018
10.75
2
17
Boston
2019
7.00
1
10
Dallas
2020
16.00
15
17
Montreal
2021
32.00
32
32
Most teams who have made it to the Cup final eventually really bottom out and end up at the very bottom of the standings. Even old friend Vancouver hit 29 one season, in 2017. But again, Pittsburgh has done well, never finishing below 15 and the Bruins never finishing below 17. Those two, along with Tampa Bay have enough of a sample size and still finish in single digits for average. While one number doesn’t tell a whole story, it does give an indication of the consistency of success for these organizations.
