How Long to Get There?

How long does it take to get to the NHL? It’s going to be different for the first overall pick to the last pick in the last round. And it is probably a gradual progression along the way.

We also often say that after the first half of the first round, it’s all a crapshoot anyway, it’s only those top 15-16 picks that are locks, right? Is that true?

I decided to look at the data from 2000 to 2024 and see how long it took the player in each first round draft slot to get to the NHL. And by “get to the NHL”, I mean in the season where he played the majority of his games. Getting 5 games in a year isn’t “getting there”. If we look at each draft position, how long does it take? Let’s start with the top 10 picks.

First Overall

This one should really be a lock. The team who chooses first can take any player they want. In some of my other research, I found that the first overall pick turns out to be the best player in the draft only half the time. The other half, some player not taking first overall ends up being better than the guy taken first. This is also the only pick where every player drafted could be evaluated. From the second pick through 10th, it’s not fair to call the 2024 player a “miss”. But the first pick in 2024 is Macklin Celebrini and I’m confident that he’s “made it” in the NHL. The numbers for the first rounders are:

0 Years21 players
1 Year3 players
2 Years0 players
3 Years1 player
Bust0 players

The first overall pick makes it to the NHL pretty quickly. 24 out of 25 did it by the year after they were drafted. The only one who took three years was goalie Rick DiPietro, the 2000 first overall pick. And none have been a bust, where a bust is defined as someone who never played the majority of their games in the NHL.

Second Overall

Getting chosen second overall in the NHL draft is still a pretty solid pick and there are no busts here either. The majority play in the NHL in their draft year. A quick look at the numbers.

0 Years13 players
1 Year6 players
2 Years4 players
3 Years1 player
Bust0 players

The only player here to take more than two years was again a goalie, Kari Lehtonen. Thirteen players make it in their draft year, 10 others within two years and no busts.

Third Overall

The third overall pick is still looking solid and again, only one player took more than two years to get to the NHL. This time, not a goalie, it’s Dylan Strome. The one player that took two years was 2005 pick Jack Johnson.

0 Years11 players
1 Year11 players
2 Years1 player
3 Years1 player
Bust0 players

Fourth Overall

Now it starts to get interesting. We see the first bust and we start to see the majority of players take a little longer, but still doing well. In case you’re wondering, the one player rated as the “bust” is Griffin Reinhart whose longest stint was 29 games with Edmonton in 2015-16.

0 Years5 players
1 Year10 players
2 Years6 players
3 Years0 players
4 Years1 player
5 Years0 players
6 Years1 player
Bust1 player

That six year player is Thomas Hickey, drafted in 2007 by the LA Kings.

Fifth Overall

We will gradually see the “bust” numbers increase and the number of players drift downward.

0 Years4 players
1 Year5 players
2 Years5 players
3 Years5 players
4 Years1 player
5 Years2 players
6+ Years0 players
Bust1 player

The “bust” is Olli Juolevi, chosen in 2016 by Vancouver.

Sixth Overall

More downward drift.

0 Years5 players
1 Year10 players
2 Years3 players
3 Years2 players
4 Years0 players
5 Years1 player
6+ Years1 player
Bust1 player

The bust was Nikita Filatov, selected by Columbus and the 6+ year player was again a goalie, Al Montoya who waited seven years to make it to the NHL.

Seventh Overall

Now we only get one player who made it to the NHL in his draft year, Jeff Skinner, and two bust players, Lars Jonsson (2000) and Lias Anderson (2017).

0 Years1 player
1 Year9 players
2 Years8 players
3 Years2 players
4 Years0 players
5 Years1 player
6+ Years0 players
Bust2 players

Eighth Overall

Four players got to the NHL in their draft year, Pierre Marc Bouchard in 2002, Mikkel Bodker in 2008, Alex Burmistrov in 2010 and Sean Couturier in 2011. The busts happened in 2004, 2007 and 2009.

0 Years4 players
1 Year6 players
2 Years4 players
3 Years3 players
4 Years1 player
5 Years2 player
6+ Years0 players
Bust3 players

Ninth Overall

The one player to make it to the NHL in his draft year was Josh Bailey, in 2008. The bust years were 2000, 2002 and 2018. Still waiting on the three most recent picks, 2022’s Matt Savoie, 2023’s Nate Danielson and 2024’s Zayne Parekh. They’re not factored in to the data below.

0 Years1 player
1 Year6 players
2 Years8 players
3 Years4 players
4 Years0 players
5 Years0 players
6+ Years0 players
Bust3 players

Tenth Overall

The last one that is included for now (the remaining 22 picks will come later), is the 10th overall pick. 2022’s Pavel Mintyukov is included in this data, so the only two not included are 2023’s Dalibor Dvorsky and 2024’s Anton Silayev. That leaves 23 picks, 8 of which are a bust. That’s 35% of the 10th overall picks in the draft who have not made it to the NHL. If 2021’s Tyler Boucher does eventually make it to the NHL, that will drop to 30%, but even that is probably a much higher bust rate than many would have thought. The one player taken 10th overall to make it to the NHL in his draft year is Valeri Nichushkin.

0 Years1 player
1 Year4 players
2 Years5 players
3 Years2 players
4 Years2 players
5 Years0 players
6+ Years1 player
Bust8 players

Looking at all of the picks in one table:

Yrs1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
02113115451411
13611105109664
20416538485
31110522342
40001100102
50000211200
6+0001010001
Bust0001112338