The draft that caused all of this. The one where I wanted to see if it was as bad as people say. When I first ran the data in 2021, the result was that the Bruins didn’t have the worst draft, but were 3rd from the bottom.

Over time, the Point Shares data changes. So let’s see how the standings changed. First, let’s remember how the data looked five years ago https://www.draft-analysis.com/the-sebastian-aho-penalty/

And the way the data looks today, after the 2026 NHL season is:

2026 Rank	2021 Rank	Team	Avg Point Share Miss	Spots Gained
1	1	Edmonton Oilers	16.75	0
2	5	Minnesota Wild	27.20	3
3	2	Calgary Flames	28.20	-1
4	9	Nashville Predators	31.76	5
5	3	Pittsburgh Penguins	36.00	-2
6	7	Vancouver Canucks	36.26	1
7	10	Carolina Hurricanes	36.72	3
8	8	Winnipeg Jets	36.80	0
9	12	Chicago Blackhawks	38.67	3
10	6	St. Louis Blues	39.05	-4
11	4	Los Angeles Kings	39.63	-7
12	11	Buffalo Sabres	39.77	-1
13	14	Florida Panthers	40.65	1
14	15	Colorado Avalanche	42.23	1
15	16	Columbus Blue Jackets	42.36	8
16	29	Washington Capitals	43.18	13
17	13	New York Islanders	43.40	-4
18	17	New Jersey Devils	43.80	-1
19	22	Detroit Red Wings	45.93	3
20	23	Montreal Canadiens	46.24	3
21	18	Philadelphia Flyers	46.67	-3
22	27	Dallas Stars	46.92	5
23	26	Anaheim Ducks	47.01	3
24	25	Ottawa Senators	47.85	1
25	20	New York Rangers	48.18	-5
26	21	Tampa Bay Lightning	48.32	-5
27	19	Toronto Maple Leafs	48.52	-8
28	24	San Jose Sharks	48.90	-4
29	28	Boston Bruins	49.41	-1
30	30	Arizona Coyotes	51.48	0

These changes are exactly why we can’t evaluate a draft too soon. I first evaluated this one six year after it happened and we’re seeing a lot of changes, the biggest movers being the Capitals and Blue Jackets moved up a bunch while Toronto and LA dropped a bit too. While any of those teams may have still had a good draft, the changes just mean that in Washington and Columbus’ situation, their players have developed more than other teams’ players did, and the opposite for Toronto and LA. Their players got a jump on others in getting to the NHL.

The Capitals had three picks in 2015 who have reached the NHL, Adam Gaudette, Jonas Siegenthaler and Ilya Samsonov. When the analysis was done in 2021, Siegenthaler had not yet reached the NHL, Samsonov had just gotten there. 2015 was when Columbus drafted Zach Werenski 8th overall.

Toronto got Mitch Marner in 2015 and has some contribution from Travis Dermott, but not much else. Marner has been good since very early on, so he helped Toronto jump up the rankings in 2021 and a lack of other picks having any impact cost the Leafs a few spots.